We are rapidly approaching the traditional Asia–Europe peak season, although recent years have demonstrated how increasingly difficult it has become to accurately predict seasonal market trends.
Last year’s peak season for ocean freight exports from Asia was relatively subdued compared to previous years. During the pandemic era, by contrast, market conditions often felt as though peak season demand was constant throughout the year.
Historically, the Asia–Europe peak season would typically begin in late June and continue through to September, before easing around China’s Golden Week in early October.
In recent years, however, these established seasonal patterns have been significantly disrupted by a range of geopolitical tensions and exceptional global events.
These disruptions have included the Covid-19 pandemic, the blockage of the Suez Canal, the war in Ukraine, and attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi militants, which forced many carriers to reroute services around the Cape of Good Hope.
Looking ahead, any continued instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could become a major factor influencing this year’s peak season. Concerns over fuel supply disruptions may place further upward pressure on freight costs, while carrier capacity also remains tied up within the Gulf region.
With carriers keen to avoid a repeat of last year’s flat peak season, many appear to be responding proactively by aggressively blanking sailings in an apparent effort to manage supply and support freight rates.
In April alone, blank sailing levels were almost 40% higher than during the same period last year. The reduction of vessel capacity through cancelled sailings has increasingly become the preferred strategy for carriers seeking to maintain or increase rate levels.
At this stage, it remains unclear whether this year’s peak season will prove to be strong or subdued. However, market conditions over the coming weeks should provide a much clearer indication of how the remainder of the season is likely to unfold.