Recent data shows that worldwide container traffic has continued to expand in recent months, even as signs of slowing demand emerge on the Asia–Europe corridor.
In October, global container volumes rose by 2.8% compared with the previous month, reaching 16.3 million teu. This marked a 2% increase year on year and lifted cumulative growth for the year to date to about 4% versus the same period in 2024.
Monthly volumes surpassed the 16 million teu threshold for the sixth time this year, a sharp contrast to last year, when that level was achieved only twice. However, momentum has weakened on some routes. After recording monthly growth rates close to 10% earlier in the year, shipments from Asia into Europe fell back in October.
At the same time, structural overcapacity remains a growing concern for carriers operating on the main east–west trades. Despite this, shipowners continue to place orders for new tonnage, with a substantial number of vessels scheduled for delivery through to 2030.
The global containership order book has now climbed to a record 11.25 million teu following a wave of recent contracts. These outstanding orders represent roughly 30% of the capacity of the existing fleet.
Based on current delivery schedules, fleet capacity is expected to expand by around 5% next year. However, analysts warn that this figure could increase to as much as 12% if carriers resume large-scale transits through the Red Sea, freeing up capacity that is currently absorbed by longer diversion routes.
Such developments point to a growing risk that supply will outpace demand. UNCTAD projects cumulative global trade growth of about 12% through 2030, suggesting a rise of only 2% to 3% for 2026.
That said, accurately forecasting global trade flows and the direction of the container shipping market remains inherently uncertain.